When entering high-stakes contests, the ultimate goal is securing the top position. This requires a focus on maximizing correlations between players and identifying potential breakout performances that can separate your lineup from the rest.
Game Stacking Approach:
Utilizing players from a single game can create a powerful synergy in your lineup, as their performances are often interconnected. This strategy can dramatically propel your lineup up the leaderboards.
3x1 Stack: The most effective game stack involves selecting a quarterback (QB), pairing them with two of their receivers (RB/WR/TE), and choosing one receiver from the opposing team. This setup captures the scoring potential from both sides of the game.
3x2 Stack: In contests with fewer entrants, a three-player stack with two from the opposing team can be beneficial, especially if the game's total score is high.
4x1 and 4x2 Stacks: On days with fewer games, consider expanding your stack to include four players from one team and one or two from the opposition, banking on that particular game outscoring others.
Pass-Catcher Preference: In most stacks, aim to include at least one wide receiver from both teams involved. Wide receivers generally have higher scoring potential, making them preferred targets over RBs and TEs.
Choosing Game Stacks:
To identify game stacks, consider the following metrics:
Projected fantasy points: Compare the fantasy projections of QBs and their receivers.
Vegas totals: Focus on games with high betting totals, especially those that have trended upward during the week.
Pressure rates: Quarterbacks perform better under less pressure. Target games where defensive pressure is minimal.
High-Volume Running Backs:
Just like in low-risk lineups, ensure your running backs are those who are expected to receive a high number of touches. This can solidify your lineup's base score.
Targeting Underperforming Wide Receivers (UPWRs):
Utilize the data on targets and air yards to pinpoint wide receivers and tight ends poised for a breakout. These UPWRs are likely to convert their high opportunity into scoring plays soon. It's advisable to include UPWRs within your game stacks whenever possible.
Flex Position Strategy:
On half-point PPR sites like FanDuel and Yahoo, consider using a running back in your flex spot. On all sites for high-risk contests, both running backs and wide receivers are viable flex options. However, avoid flexing tight ends, as this strategy rarely pays off.
Projected Ownership Considerations:
Ownership isn't as critical in high-risk NFL DFS as in other sports, mainly due to the lower prevalence of game stacking. Allocate ownership to running backs and seek lower ownership among wide receivers and tight ends, who may also be UPWRs.
Salary Cap Management:
Pricing in NFL DFS is typically efficient, so aim to use nearly all your available salary, leaving no more than $500 unused to ensure maximum potential.
Mass Multi-Entry (MME) Strategy:
For MME players, start with a lineup builder, then apply the high-risk lineup principles. Here's an effective approach:
Game Stacks: Select three main game stacks and use both quarterbacks, resulting in six QBs for your player pool.
Running Back Pool: Choose a focused group of 5-10 running backs for heavy rotation.
Wide Receiver Pool: Spread your exposure among 15-30 wide receivers.
Tight End Pool: Keep a smaller pool of 4-6 tight ends.
Defense/Special Teams (DST): Limit your choices to 4-8 DSTs, and avoid playing offensive players against your DSTs.
Team Limits: Restrict yourself to two offensive players per team unless involved in a game stack.
Following these guidelines can enhance your chances of success in NFL DFS, propelling your lineups toward the top of the standings.
