Analyzing Results – Learning and Adapting with the DFS Hero Platform
The pursuit of long-term success in DFS doesn’t end when the games end each night. In fact, what you do after each slate is a huge part of the DFS Hero Mindset. Top players relentlessly review their results, identify what worked or didn’t, and adjust their process accordingly. This chapter is all about using a reflective, analytical approach to keep improving. We’ll cover how to analyze your DFS outcomes using DFS Hero’s features and how to adapt without overreacting. Think of this as “closing the loop” on your process: plan → execute → review → refine → repeat.
5.1 Post-Slate Review: The Habit of Champions
It’s tempting to either celebrate a win and move on, or sulk after a loss and try to forget it. But the DFS Hero approach is to always review. Here’s a solid post-slate routine:
• Record and Reflect: Once contests are settled, take a moment to record the key outcomes. If you’re using the Bankroll Tracker (as recommended), import the latest results so your records are up to date. Then note how you did: Did you profit or lose? More importantly, how close were your lineups to the optimal or to winning lineups? For instance, maybe you missed the cash line by 5 points – what single decision could have swung that? Or you won a GPP – what were the differentiators that made it happen? Jot down these observations while fresh in your mind.
• Compare Lineups to Expectations: DFS Hero’s data can help here. You can compare what actually happened to what was expected. Many DFS Hero users utilize the fact that our platform shows pre-lock projections alongside actual results for each player. Go through your lineup and see who underperformed or overperformed relative to projection:
o If a player you rostered significantly underperformed, was it due to an unforeseen event (injury, game script flip) or was it a risk that just didn’t pan out? If it’s the latter, the decision might still have been sound (process was fine, result was bad due to variance).
o If a player overperformed (blew past his projection), did you have enough of him? If not, was there a reason you were low on him (maybe a process flaw where you overlooked something)? Or was it just an outlier game nobody could have predicted?
o Check any late swaps or last-minute decisions you made: did they help or hurt? This reinforces learning to trust or adjust your instincts next time.
• Analyze Contest-Wide Data: If possible, review the winning lineup of the contest and a few other high-ranking lineups. What strategies did they use? Did they stack a game you avoided? Did they pick a low-owned gem? With DFS Hero’s Contest Simulator, you can even take winning lineups and run them through simulations after the fact, just to see if they were as good as their result (sometimes a winning lineup wasn’t actually the most “optimal” or highest EV, it just got the right variance). This can prevent you from blindly copying what won last time – instead, you’ll focus on what usually works versus what just happened to work that day.
• Note Trends Over Time: One slate’s data is small, but if you do this regularly, you’ll start spotting trends. Maybe you notice “every time I skip stacking a certain type of game, I regret it” or “my biggest wins come when I trust the value projections instead of forcing in a superstar name.” Write these insights down. Keeping a short journal or log of these findings can be valuable. It doesn’t have to be elaborate – even bullet points of lessons learned for the week can do. The key is to turn experience into improved intuition.
5.2 Utilizing DFS Hero for Backtesting:
Backtesting means going back to previous slates and testing different scenarios or lineup constructions as if you were doing it again, to see what you could learn. DFS Hero makes backtesting feasible because it retains historical data (projections, actual results, ownership, etc.). Here’s how you can use the platform to backtest and refine your process:
• Re-run Contest Simulations: Perhaps you locked in a certain setting or made an assumption. For example, you might ask, “What if I had set a higher randomness level?”or “What if I had played that other stack I considered?”. You can actually go back to that slate in DFS Hero’s Contest Simulator, load the conditions, and simulate alternative scenarios. See how different lineups would have fared. This can confirm if your original process was solid or if an alternate approach had merit. It’s like having a DFS time machine for learning purposes.
• Examine Projections vs. Actuals: As mentioned, look at where projections were off. If you notice systematically that a team’s players always underperform projections in certain situations (maybe a slow-paced team in NBA always hits the under on projections when facing a top defense), you can incorporate that knowledge next time. It might also highlight the accuracy of DFS Hero’s projections – generally quite strong, but no model is perfect. Identifying where your expectations didn’t match reality helps refine those expectations.
• Try Different Lineup Builds: If you had a hunch you didn’t act on, backtesting is a safe way to see if the hunch would have paid off. For instance, “I considered not playing that chalky running back, what would a lineup without him look like in the contest results?” Use the Lineup Optimizer in hindsight: lock or exclude players to mimic those alternate choices, then simulate or compare to actual results. Be careful not to results-chase (just because something worked once doesn’t mean it was a good strategy universally), but do use it to test reasonable strategic ideas.
• Track Your Adjustments: As you backtest and find insights, you’ll start making small tweaks to your process. Maybe you decide “I need to weigh late news more heavily” or “I should trust the sim ROI metric more for value plays.” Each tweak is an experiment in itself. Track these: e.g., “After Week 5, I will begin capping any one player at 50% exposure.” Then in subsequent reviews, see if that helped your outcomes. Over time, you’re calibrating your process like an instrument.
5.3 Adapting Without Overreacting:
A critical skill in analysis is knowing how to use the information. The goal is to improve your play, but not to flip-flop on your strategy with every small sample of results. Here’s how to maintain that balance:
• Look for Consistent Patterns: If something stands out one night, file it away. If it continues over several slates, act on it. For example, if you have three consecutive weeks where your NBA lineups fail because you ignored late news, that’s a glaring pattern to fix (e.g., start reserving time for late swap). But if you faded one popular player who went off for 50 points, that alone isn’t cause to abandon a contrarian approach next time – it might just be variance.
• Differentiate Process Mistakes from Bad Luck: Not every losing lineup is a mistake. Sometimes you’ll make all the right calls and still lose; other times you might cash despite a suboptimal decision. The analytical mindset is to be self-critical: identify if a loss was due to a poor process (e.g., you didn’t realize a player’s minutes would be limited – that’s a research miss) or just randomness (your well-researched sleeper got hurt in the first quarter). Fix the former, accept the latter and move on.
• Solicit Feedback and Insights: This overlaps with the next chapter on community, but it’s worth noting here: discussing your results with others can provide perspectives you missed. Maybe you share a summary of your slate in the DFS Hero Discord and another user points out a trend or a stat you overlooked. Being open to feedback is part of adapting. Just ensure you weigh the feedback and apply changes that make sense to you, rather than blindly following someone else’s opinion.
• Stay Positive and Motivated: Analysis should be empowering, not discouraging. The aim is to find ways to get better, which is an exciting prospect! Even if the analysis reveals many mistakes, that means you have clear areas to work on, which is good news for your growth. Approaching analysis with a positive mindset (instead of beating yourself up) will make you more honest with yourself and more proactive in improving.
“I used to skip post-game analysis because I thought I’d remember things, but I didn’t. Once I started using the DFS Hero Bankroll Tracker and reviewing my lineups regularly, I began spotting where I was leaking money – like over-entering certain contests and picking too many long-shot punts in my lineups. Adjusting those made an immediate difference. It’s powerful to actually see your data and use it. Every Monday I spend an hour looking back at the week’s DFS results with DFS Hero’s tools; it’s become my secret weapon for steady improvement.”
— DFS Hero User
By dedicating time to analyze and learn, you ensure that you are always improving or at least validating your approach. DFS isn’t static – players change, teams change, new strategies emerge – so a willingness to adapt is crucial. Using DFS Hero’s robust data and tools for review gives you a structured way to adapt intelligently, grounded in facts and stats, not just feelings. With this, you close the loop on the DFS Hero process: plan → execute → review → refine → and then back to planning for the next slate, a little wiser than before.
