Bust % is a probability metric that quantifies the likelihood of a player failing to meet their expected performance in a specific matchup. This metric is especially useful for cash tournaments, where consistency and minimizing risk are key to building successful lineups.
How It Works:
• Probability Calculation:
• Bust % is calculated through thousands of simulations of a player’s performance in the given matchup. Each simulation evaluates whether the player meets or falls short of their expected fantasy points, resulting in a confirmed Bust % that reflects the likelihood of the player “busting” or underperforming.
• Use in Cash Tournaments:
• In cash tournaments, where the goal is to achieve a safe, consistent lineup with lower variance, Bust % helps you identify players with a lower risk of underperformance. By targeting players with a low Bust %, you can build lineups that are more likely to meet expectations and secure a return.
Why It Matters:
• Pinpointing Safe Plays:
• Bust % allows you to identify safer plays by highlighting players who have a lower chance of busting. This is crucial in cash games where avoiding risky, high-variance players can be the difference between winning and losing.
• Informed Decision-Making:
• By using Bust % in your analysis, you can make more informed decisions about which players to include in your lineup, ensuring that you minimize risk and maximize your chances of success in cash tournaments.
Overall, Bust % is a valuable tool for DFS players looking to build lineups with a high probability of meeting expectations, reducing the risk of underperformance in crucial matchups.