Leverage is a metric that helps you assess a player’s potential value relative to their projected ownership in Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS). It is calculated by comparing how often a player appears in optimal lineups during simulations with their projected ownership percentage. Leverage indicates whether a player is over- or under-owned compared to their likelihood of being in a winning lineup.
How It Works:
• Positive Leverage:
• Example: If a player appears in the optimal lineup 60% of the time in simulations but is only projected to be owned by 30% of the field, they have +30 points of positive leverage. This means the player is under-owned, and you might want to consider increasing your exposure to them, as they have a higher chance of outperforming their ownership percentage.
• Negative Leverage:
• Example: If a player is optimal 30% of the time in simulations but is projected to be owned by 60% of the field, they have -30 points of negative leverage. This suggests the player is over-owned, and you might want to consider reducing your exposure, going equal to the field, or even fading the player to avoid high ownership with lower optimal potential.
Why It Matters:
• Strategic Differentiation:
• Leverage helps you identify opportunities to differentiate your lineups from the field by finding under-owned players with high potential or avoiding over-owned players with lower-than-expected performance potential.
• Informed Decision-Making:
• By understanding leverage, you can make more strategic decisions about which players to target, helping you take calculated risks that could give you an edge in DFS contests.
In essence, Leverage is a powerful tool for finding value in DFS contests, allowing you to take stands and make informed choices to increase your chances of success.